“If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence. The origin of myths is explained in this way.”
- Bertrand Russell
Nassim Nicholas Taleb book “The Black Swan” addresses the issue quite well. Human beings overestimate the likelihood of improbable events (winning the lottery), and underestimate the likelihood probable events (starting a successful business). Successful entrepreneurs are better able to handle the ambiguity that Black Swans introduce into the dynamic because they expect a positive outcome.
No business would ever get started if the restaurateurs considered all the things that can go wrong. Restaurateurs look to the completion of a project and not the minor obstacles or the major Black Swans that present themselves along the way.
Successful restaurateurs understand that everything will not go smoothly because they are imbued with a Non Linear Mindset!
